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Sports

Early Week 8 NFL bets to make right now: Back the Packers

Details
21 October 2025

Normally in the introduction for this article, I provide a good information nugget about handicapping. In previous weeks it has been weighting priors versus early-season results, or about bye weeks being part of the schedule which means certain teams now have huge rest advantages. By Week 8, there aren’t as many new lessons to be learned, so this is the rare time I will do a little patting myself on the back.

In the last four weeks for this Tuesday article, the bets have gone 9-1. Based on both process and results, the most advantageous thing a bettor can do in the NFL is bet early to the market and beat the closing number. The NFL market is very efficient, and with key numbers present in both spreads and totals, there are easily quantifiable edges to obtain in having tickets with closing line value.

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Let’s repeat the process and grab these three Week 7 bets that will likely close ahead by kickoff.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Green Bay Packers (-3, 44.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Packers are the second-best team in the NFL according to market based power rankings. Based on these metrics, and standing at a current 4-1-1, they have a 90.1% chance of making the playoffs, and 26% of being the NFC’s top seed (and getting a bye). Besides having a bet for them in this game, I also recommend betting Packers +800 Super Bowl right now at BetMGM. They are behind the Lions in Super Bowl futures, and that shouldn’t be the case.

The Steelers actually jumped from the 14th power ranked team to the 12th this week despite a loss to the Bengals last Thursday night. That is because Tampa Bay’s power rating fell with the Mike Evans injury, and so did the Texans’ rating due to their continuing abysmal offense.

I still don’t buy the Steelers being 1.4 points above a neutral team in the NFL, though. The longer the season continues, the harder it is going to get for this older group. The Steelers have the second-oldest team in the league, per average age of their starters — while the Packers are the league's youngest. There is also more tape that opposing teams have on the quick passing offense the Steelers are reliant on.

I make this game Green Bay -3.6 at Pittsburgh. Given the weight of 3 being the single most important number in sports betting, it becomes an absolute no-brainer to play the Packers side at -3 (-115). No amount of Aaron Rodgers revenge narrative can shake me off wanting to be on the right side of the 3. Grab this now and early in the week, because I suspect we are closing at -3.5 here.

Bet: Packers -3 (-115)

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 43.5)

This is the second Giants-Eagles game in the last three weeks. A Week 6 clash in East Rutherford, New Jersey was the Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo coming-out party as the Giants beat their division rivals 34-17. Now, in Week 8, these teams meet in Philadelphia. I think the quick turnaround for this repeat matchup actually bodes well to expect the exact opposite result. 

We see this style of handicapping in baseball and recently more often in basketball. When two teams play in short order, bet the second game back toward the lines of Game 1. The reason is because the pricing is often a reaction to the results of the last matchup, but in actuality the larger full season of sample size data — which was used to price the first game — is more reliable. It becomes an even more efficient betting approach when the favorite loses the first game, as the Eagles were 7-point favorites on the road in Week 6.

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Now at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, the Eagles remain a 7-point favorite with a total at 43.5. The total for that Week 6 matchup opened at 42.5 and was bet heavily under, closing at 40.5. In NFL totals betting, 43 is a key number, so here I want to play the under.

These are still two teams that rely on the rushing attack despite going against strong defensive lines. Both teams employ a passing game with mostly underneath throws. The Eagles' woes this season have been connecting on deep passes, while the Giants recently lost Malik Nabers to a torn ACL and he was their main factor in spreading the field and providing that spacing. In this game, I suspect heavy run opportunities, long drives, some inefficiencies in the red zone and an under contest.

I also like the Eagles to cover, as there should be a 3-point switch when changing home fields. So we can say either the Week 6 price was wrong, or the Week 8 price is wrong. In that scenario, I choose to think the Week 6 price was correct — because there was a full week of betting information that went into that game. The Week 8 price is more likely to be incorrect because we still have five days until kickoff for the line to be changed.

While that seems hard to justify given a 34-17 Giants win, this is a reminder to prioritize process and not results. Betting information for a week is more important than the results of a 60-minute game when it comes to continuing your handicapping. Last week, before kickoff, we also saw the Eagles take action against Minnesota, and the Broncos take action against the Giants. I expect a similar buy on Eagles and fade on Giants, so grab that now.

Bet: Under 43.5 (-105)

Bet: Eagles -7 (-105)

Both are good to -115

Note: This is the first time I am giving out two bets on the same game. This is not a parlay and I strongly oppose parlaying these. A non-correlated two-leg parlay with -110 lines should pay out +264, and right now I am seeing +260 on this parlay. We can even say the Eagles to win by more than a touchdown should be correlated with the over, because more points means more margin for victory. Yet there is still a correlation tax put on these lines, with them both at -105 to begin with. This is unfair to you as the bettor and carries negative expected value. Play them as straight bets.

Read more …

Falcons release WR Ray-Ray McCloud III after sending him home last week because of private matter

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21 October 2025

The Atlanta Falcons sent wide receiver and return man Ray-Ray McCloud III home last week because of what head coach Raheem Morris described Friday as a private matter between McCloud and the team. 

Four days later, and two days after McCloud was a healthy scratch for a Week 7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, the Falcons released him.

McCloud was also a healthy scratch for Week 6 win over the Buffalo Bills. He had been Atlanta's No. 3 wide receiver since last season, although his six receptions and 64 receiving yards over four games in 2025 paled in comparison to the production he turned in during the 2024 campaign.

Last season, his first with the Falcons, the former sixth-round pick out of Clemson caught 62 passes for 686 yards and a touchdown to go along with his 14 kickoff returns, on which he averaged 25.8 yards. 

"I sent him home," Morris said Friday, via ESPN. "Excused absence — home. Working through some things right now that are private with my young man, and we'll figure those things out as we go."

Last week, McCloud practiced Wednesday before missing Thursday and Friday's practices for non-injury-related reasons, per ESPN.

The Falcons fired wide receivers coach Ike Hilliard after their 30-0 defeat to the Carolina Panthers in Week 3. Hilliard being on staff reportedly played a big part in McCloud signing with the Falcons during the 2024 offseason.

But when Morris was asked about Hilliard's firing and McCloud's situation, he told reporters the two were unrelated.

"This is between Ray-Ray, the organization and us and dealing with those things," Morris said, via ESPN.

Morris added: "Nothing to do with that."

Morris didn't classify McCloud being sent home as a disciplinary measure. He called it "more a football thing" and said it was something "we got to get straightened out," per ESPN.

McCloud has also played for the Buffalo Bills (2018), Carolina Panthers (2019), Pittsburgh Steelers (2020-21) and San Francisco 49ers (2022-23). He led the NFL with 367 punt return yards in 2021 when he was with the Steelers. 

But his best receiving numbers came last season in Atlanta.

Read more …

Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin are expected to return to full practices this week

Details
21 October 2025

Commanders wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel are expected to return to full participation in practice this week.

“The plan is to have full weeks of practice for them,” head coach Dan Quinn said on SiriusXM's "Movin the Chains," via Ben Standig of lastmanstandig.com.

The Commanders played Sunday's game against the Cowboys without McLaurin (quad), Samuel (heel) and Noah Brown (groin). Brown is on injured reserve.

It was the fourth game McLaurin has missed this season since his injury in Week 3.

Samuel has had little practice time the past three weeks, but Sunday's game was the first that he's missed. He is the only wide receiver on the roster with more than 10 receptions and his four touchdowns are tied with tight end Zach Ertz for the most on the team.

Quarterback Jayden Daniels avoided a significant injury with his hamstring, which he injured in the second half of the loss to the Cowboys. Still, his status for Monday's game at Kansas City is uncertain.

Read more …

More Articles …

  1. Chiefs sign CB Kevin Knowles to active roster
  2. Panthers sign QB Mike White to practice squad
  3. Woody Johnson's candid comments about QB Justin Fields are a bad look for G.M. Darren Mougey
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