Sports

By Matt Okada, 4for4

Special to Yahoo Sports

Last year, I inherited this series on outlier touchdown production from the venerable TJ Hernandez and used it to spotlight fantasy players due for regression in 2024. While the hit rate isn't perfect, the research predicted a bounce back for Aaron Jones — who ended up being the RB14 — and negative regression for Travis Etienne Jr. — who scored 10 fewer touchdowns than he had the year prior. It remains a helpful strategy for pinpointing big swings in scoring, at least from an efficiency perspective.

First, a quick crash course on the data. There is a consistent historical rate at which an average NFL player finds the end zone, relative to their opportunity. That rate can be more specifically dissected by field position to offer a more granular look at the data — unsurprisingly, a goal-to-go target has a much higher chance of producing a touchdown than a carry from midfield. While these historical rates aren't necessarily the same thing as predictive probabilities, they are usually quite close over a decent sample. The following table lists a bird’s-eye view of the touchdown rates for all running back opportunities (carries and targets) over the last 10 seasons, with field positions aggregated for simplicity.

So, if these numbers mark the "norm," what constitutes an "outlier season" for an RB? Let's take a look at James Cook as an example. Over his first two seasons, Cook scored a total of nine touchdowns ... and then he doubled that total in 2024 alone. Throughout the process, he scored on 25% of his red-zone carries (well above league average), scored on 2.5% of his long-distance carries (highest rate among qualified backs) and finished with a total touchdown rate of 7.3% (highest again, and more than double the league average).

If you convert his total rates and opportunities into "expectations," Cook scored more than 10 touchdowns above expectation, which is patently absurd. As a result, we can almost guarantee touchdown rate regression for Cook in 2025, and that understanding should impact our evaluations for fantasy (more on Cook below).

Obviously, the same thinking works in reverse for players who score well below expectation.

With all this math in mind, here are six names to note coming off last season's results and heading into 2025 fantasy drafts.

Which Running Backs Should Score More in 2025?

D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears

• 2024 Expected Total TDs - 9.2

• 2024 Actual Total TDs - 6

• Total TDs Below Expectation - 3.2

A bit of an enigma over the first few months of the offseason, D'Andre Swift is coming off an RB19 finish despite playing for one of the league's worst offenses. Chicago was bottom five in both points and yards last season, and no team had fewer red-zone drives. When the Bears did find their way into the red zone, Swift saw 31 opportunities ... but scored on just three. His 9.7% red-zone TD rate ranked fourth-lowest among backs with 30+ red-zone opportunities and was the lowest of his career by far.

With Ben Johnson now in charge of the offense, an improved O-line, a year of growth for QB Caleb Williams and very little competition elsewhere in the backfield, Swift is primed for a situational bump in scoring opportunities and a mathematical bump in scoring efficiency. Even if he saw just 31 red-zone opportunities again, a league-average 18% touchdown rate would produce an additional two or three touchdowns in that area alone. But if the improved offense translates into growth in scoring opportunities, and his efficiency sees a spike as well, Swift could be a sneaky bet for double-digit scrimmage scores in 2025 — something he hasn't accomplished since his rookie year.

Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

• 2024 Expected Total TDs - 6.1

• 2024 Actual Total TDs - 2

• Total TDs Below Expectation - 4.1

Perhaps the most polarizing player — in the most polarizing backfield — of the 2025 fantasy conversation seems to be Travis Etienne Jr. On one hand, he's a former first-round pick, entering a contract year, with two seasons of 1,400+ scrimmage yards on the books, and the vocal confidence of new head coach and exciting offensive mind, Liam Coen. On the other hand, he was largely outplayed and heavily outscored by Tank Bigsby last year, and the new regime drafted a pair of Day 3 running backs in Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen.

Here are some facts we know for sure. No other RB with 200+ opportunities last season scored at a lower clip than Etienne (1.0%). Additionally, he saw 21 opportunities from "Scoring Position" (see above), but failed to find the end zone once on those looks — tying with Swift for the most such opportunities without a TD. And while Etienne did make the "fewer TDs in 2024" list in this column last year, these results were a bit of an overcorrection.

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The difficulty with Etienne's 2025 outlook is more about the opportunity — his scoring efficiency should go up, but if he loses his job to Bigsby or Tuten, that won't matter much. Alternatively, if Coen's verbal support for Etienne's camp performance translates into a lead-back workload for a potentially ascending offense, he could be a major value at his current ADP of RB43.

Etienne will be a name to monitor as the offseason continues, and we may see his draft value fluctuate significantly if and when the Jacksonville depth chart becomes clearer.

Which Running Back Should Score Less in 2025?

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

• 2024 Expected Total TDs - 7.4

• 2024 Actual Total TDs - 18

• Total TDs Above Expectation - 10.6

Cook was such an egregious outlier last season that he became our example for the concept at the top of this piece (see the third paragraph for more of the gory details). All told, his 10.6 touchdowns above expectation were comfortably the most across the entire league.

And all this from a player who scored at a below-league-average rate over his first two seasons (despite playing in a top-tier offense). Also, if you're tempted to point to the Joe Brady takeover at OC...Cook scored at a below-average rate in the eight games Brady coordinated at the end of 2023, including just one rushing TD on 129 carries.

Ultimately, it's not impossible that Buffalo figured out how to unlock Cook a bit more or that the player himself improved his effectiveness from striking distance. But not to this degree. Knock Cook's TD rate down to Jahmyr Gibbs' elite 6.1%, and he loses three touchdowns. Bump it down to Derrick Henry's also elite 5.2%, and he loses five. And if Cook slides all the way back down towards league average or his own career rate prior to 2024, he falls well out of the RB1 conversation.

I'm not predicting a full regression, but even a minor regression makes Cook a dangerous pick at his current ADP of RB12. Draft warily.

This story originally appeared in its full version on 4for4.com.