Just nine months after they played a classic in the AFC divisional round, Baltimore and Buffalo met up to do the same in the first Sunday Night Football affair of the year. Buffalo was able to pull off an improbable comeback after trailing by 15 points with 11:50 left following a 46-yard rushing touchdown by Derrick Henry, who ran wild almost the entire game.
While Buffalo’s comeback was thrilling, and another historic moment in the three-way AFC power struggle between Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and the king Patrick Mahomes, the Ravens showed another problem that has plagued them in recent years — they can’t seem to close out these games.
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This looked like a Ravens win all the way until there were only a few minutes left. Through three quarters of play, the Ravens were averaging 9.1 yards per play, 11.9 yards per dropback and 4.86 points per drive. They picked up right where they left off in the divisional round, stampeding Buffalo’s defense and really doing whatever the hell they wanted, especially on the ground. Unfortunately for them, the silly and ill-timed mistakes also followed them in this game and ultimately led to their stunning loss as new Bills kicker Matt Prater nailed a game-winner as time expired to win 41-40.
The first thing that set the Ravens up to fail at the end here was missing the extra point attempt after Henry’s aforementioned 46-yard touchdown. Rookie kicker Tyler Loop missed an extra point that would have put them up 41-25, which would’ve been a key point to have in their back pocket as they attempted to hold their lead in the final 11 minutes. Regardless, the rookie missed and the Ravens gave up a touchdown a few drives later, cutting their lead to 40-32 with 3:20 left.
In theory, and what is baffling about the Ravens in general, this should be a spot where Jackson and Henry really shine. This is undoubtedly the best rushing duo in the league, with an offensive line that was mowing the Bills all day in the run game.
Running the ball with their two future Hall of Famers was clearly how they were going to try and close this game out, but then the unthinkable happened when Henry fumbled the ball. Since the start of the 2023 season, his last with the Titans, Henry has touched the ball 671 times between rushes and receptions and has fumbled the ball only four times, including last night’s gaffe. The Bills recovered the fumble, scored a touchdown to cut the lead to two, forced a three-and-out and then blitzed down the field for a game-winning field goal.
The reason why this is so baffling is that the Ravens, on paper, just seem too damn talented to constantly be making mistakes like this. For most of the game, they were playing up to that talent level as they bulldozed the Bills' defense and had a quality back-and-forth against the reigning MVP Allen where the defense was able to pick up some wins. Until they added yet another data point on their troubling trend of blowing leads.
According to Pro Football Reference, four of the top seven largest blown leads in Ravens franchise history have happened since 2022. They’ve blown leads of 21 (Dolphins, 2022), 17 (Bills, 2022), and 15 twice, including vs. the Browns in 2023 and now this season opener. There are also smaller blown leads like their 10-point giveaway to the Raiders last season, but this just seems to be something that’s a part of their DNA right now.
There is simply no reason that a team with this many stars shouldn’t be able to close games out. Some of these plays are just so random, like the Henry fumble, that it's hard to ascribe a particular reason as to why they’re happening in these clutch moments for Baltimore, but it’s a problem they have to fix. Second-year defensive coordinator Zach Orr has a lot of soul-searching and tinkering to do with the defense to ensure that side of the ball isn’t letting teams back in the game, but the Ravens superstars need to play a bit tighter to drag them across the finish line.
This game, like so many others for the Ravens, was in their complete control. And this game, like so many others for the Ravens, slipped out of their grasp as they continued to make the worst mistakes at the worst possible timing. This team will be in the playoffs, but they still need to shake this mental boogeyman to finally win the Super Bowl.