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Week 13 NFL picks against-the-spread, predictions for every game: Packers-Lions leads a strong Thanksgiving

The Detroit Lions were a machine last season. They went 15-2. We've seen that level from them this season too, but it hasn't stuck. 

The Lions have switched between looking like a Super Bowl contender and a team that could miss the playoffs. They needed a nearly miraculous field goal to send last week's game against the New York Giants — a 2-10 team down to their third quarterback this season — to overtime. They won that game but the Lions have had too many games this season in which they've played far below their talent level. 

One of those games happened in Week 1. The Lions were demolished by the Green Bay Packers. They lost 27-13, and the score only looked that good because Detroit got a touchdown in garbage time. Green Bay thoroughly outplayed them. Like the Lions, the Packers have had trouble consistently playing at that level since. 

While the 8-3 Chicago Bears are holding first place for the moment, they'll need some quality wins to maintain that spot as the schedule gets tougher. Packers at Lions will, at very least, clarify which team has the best shot to battle the Bears for the division title. 

It also feels like the pivot point for the Lions. If they're truly a team capable of a playoff run, they'll handle the Packers at home, getting revenge and grabbing an inside track on the NFC North title. A loss wouldn't eliminate them from the division race, but it would make Detroit a long shot. The spread is Lions -2.5 from BetMGM, and Detroit is the pick. It's hard to give up on them as a potential Super Bowl team. But it's time for them to prove it. 

Aidan Hutchinson of the Detroit Lions hits Packers quarterback Jordan Love in a Week 1 meeting between the teams. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
Aidan Hutchinson of the Detroit Lions hits Packers quarterback Jordan Love in a Week 1 meeting between the teams. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
Patrick McDermott via Getty Images

Here are the rest of the picks for Week 13 in the NFL, with odds from BetMGM: 

Chiefs (-3) over Cowboys

Are the Cowboys playoff contenders after a win over the Eagles? Probably not yet. DVOA gives Dallas a 7.3% chance to make the playoffs. But a win over the Chiefs would significantly change those odds. Dallas definitely can't afford to fall to 5-6-1 this late in the season in a tough NFC. Dallas has to contend with a Kansas City team that should already be in playoff mode, because a loss here would be damaging for the Chiefs too. We'll be skeptical about the Cowboys for one more week. 

Bengals (+7) over Ravens

A team's record doesn't always tell the whole story. Baltimore is 5-0 in its last five games. But if you've watched the Ravens lately you know they haven't been that dominant. They caught an easy stretch of their schedule and have let some bad teams hang around way too long. Lamar Jackson hasn't looked anywhere near his normal self since he came back from a hamstring injury. They'll face a Bengals team that will be excited to get Joe Burrow back to the lineup and perhaps play the role of spoiler down the stretch. Cincinnati can keep it close. 

Eagles (-7) over Bears

If the Bears are worthy of their 8-3 record, then they should cover this spread easily. It's OK to be cautious, considering the Bears have very few decent wins and a -3 point differential. The Eagles will be angry after a bad loss, though it's worth wondering if their offense is capable of taking out their frustration on anyone. 

Browns (+5) over 49ers

The 49ers defense is weird. They'll give up a ton of yards for a few games, then pop up with a strong performance like Monday night against the Panthers, or when they shut down the Falcons in Week 7. The Browns defense is legit, and while Shedeur Sanders hasn't figured out the NFL just because he played well against the Raiders, the team seems energized by him. This is a tough spot for the 49ers, especially if the weather is bad. 

Jaguars (-6.5) over Titans

The Titans have covered the spread three games in a row, but let's not get too ahead of ourselves. They were down 23-3 to the Seahawks before Seattle let the Titans get in the backdoor during garbage time. The Jaguars have renewed hope for an AFC South title and should take care of business, even if it's always a bit shaky with Trevor Lawrence. 

Texans (+4.5) over Colts

The Colts deserve to be favored and by more than a field goal. This still seems like a great spot for the Texans, who have won three in a row, are coming off extra rest and could get C.J. Stroud back. The Colts have looked a little shaky lately. The Texans defense will keep them in this game, and Houston winning straight up is possible too. 

Dolphins (-6) over Saints

I wouldn't have guessed a few weeks ago that I'd take Miami laying six points to anyone, but here we are. The Dolphins are off a bye and the Saints looked bad last Sunday against Atlanta. It's hard to take the Dolphins as such a big favorite, but it's even harder to know what we'll get from the Saints. 

Falcons (-2.5) over Jets

Atlanta probably isn't turning around its season with Kirk Cousins, but the Falcons are better than the Jets. New York changed quarterbacks due to Justin Fields' struggles, and Tyrod Taylor wasn't much better. There aren't many more cards for the Jets to play this season. 

Buccaneers (-3) over Cardinals

Baker Mayfield's status is up in the air, and the line indicates that oddsmakers don't believe he'll play. The Buccaneers with a healthy Mayfield should be way more than a field-goal favorite at home against an Arizona team that has lost eight of nine. Even without Mayfield, the Cardinals are hard to pick against anyone. 

Panthers (+10.5) over Rams

Last week, the three biggest underdogs on the board covered. No matter how lopsided a matchup looks, it's hard to cover a double-digit spread in the NFL, especially on the road. The Panthers looked awful in Week 12 and the Rams looked like the best team in football. Still, it's a double-digit home NFL underdog. Though there are some ugly underdogs this week who are a lot tougher to pick, such as ... 

Seahawks (-11.5) over Vikings

On one hand, the Vikings offense can't get much worse with Max Brosmer starting for J.J. McCarthy. And, as just stated, double-digit NFL underdogs are typically good picks. But this is a really tough spot for Brosmer, an undrafted rookie who has eight passing attempts. Seattle has one of the best, most complicated defenses in the NFL. The Seahawks also have a real home-field advantage. The Vikings will rally around Brosmer, but that might not be enough. 

Steelers (+4) over Bills

This is not the Bills team we expected. Josh Allen is still great and the Bills don't have much else to lean on. Last week's loss to the Texans was ugly. The Steelers aren't great but the Bills are vulnerable. 

Chargers (-10) over Raiders

Another double-digit underdog that is just too hard to stomach. The Raiders might be the worst team in the NFL. Firing offensive coordinator Chip Kelly was justified based on the offense's results, but it does create more upheaval for a team that doesn't need any other adversity. The Chargers also have an extra week of rest after the bye. This might get ugly. 

Broncos (-6.5) over Commanders

If the Commanders are going to have a good performance, it might come on a Sunday night like this one. But it's a fantastic Broncos team with a stellar defense that had a bye week to rest up. The only question is whether the Broncos offense can score enough to cover. 

Giants (+7.5) over Patriots

The Patriots are a better team, but they took on some offensive line injuries last week. That's not good right before they face the Giants' pass rush. The Giants are 2-10 but surprisingly competitive. They're 7-5 against the spread. It should be a decent Monday night game, even though it's a 10-2 team hosting a 2-10 team. 

Last week: 6-7-1

Season to date: 94-81-5

Panthers CB Corey Thornton out for year with a broken fibula

The Panthers turned to rookie Corey Thornton after cornerback Jaycee Horn suffered a concussion in Monday night's loss to the 49ers, but Thornton won't be an option if Horn misses more time this season.

Thornton left later in the game with a leg injury and Panthers head coach Dave Canales said on Tuesday that Thornton will miss the rest of the season with a broken fibula.

Thornton made the Panthers as an undrafted rookie and has appeared in every game this season. He had 14 tackles, three passes defensed and a forced fumble in that action.

Cornerback isn't the only spot where the Panthers are thin on defense heading into this week's game against the Rams. They are short on healthy linebackers and safety Tre'von Moehrig will miss the game while serving a suspension unless his ban is overturned on appeal.

Vikings underestimated the pressure placed on J.J. McCarthy

Through six NFL starts, it seems as if Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy doesn't have it. Whatever "it" is — that thing that allows a quarterback to thrive in the NFL — it's not there.

The numbers make that clear. Six touchdown passes, 10 interceptions, passer rating of 57.9. If he had played enough games to make the list of qualifying passing leaders through 12 weeks of the 2025 season, McCarthy would be dead last. By nearly 20 points.

He fails the eyeball test, too. McCarthy's performances just don't have the right overall look.

Throw in the fact that he can't consistently avoid injury, and it adds up to McCarthy being (so far) a top-10 bust.

That said, it's not all his fault. Part of the problem seems to be that he's thinking too much and trying too hard. If so, it's for good reason. The broader circumstances have put him under incredible pressure to perform.

The fault ultimately flows to the Vikings. With or without Kirk Cousins returning for 2024, the Vikings planned to roll the dice on a rookie quarterback. With four off the board in the top eight, they moved up a spot to take McCarthy over Bo Nix at No. 10.

They surely saw something in McCarthy. Or maybe his personality influenced them to overlook the lack of overall throws at Michigan, where he had 22.13 attempts per game in 2023. (Nix averaged 33.57 that same season.) Maybe the belief that McCarthy could become the leader they needed caused them not to fret about his habit of having one pitch in his arsenal: Fastball.

Maybe they swallowed the hook on the predictable coaching-clichés from former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, who seemed to hype McCarthy into the top 10. Even though it should have been obvious that he was doing a solid for a guy who had helped Harbaugh win a championship. And if Harbaugh could have gotten a team picking before the Chargers in 2024 to take McCarthy, it would have pushed toward Harbaugh's Chargers at No. 5 a player they needed more than a quarterback.

Drafting McCarthy was the Vikings' first apparent mistake. The second mistake came from not having an effective plan for the dramatically-changed circumstances after the 2024 season.

Sam Darnold led the Vikings to an unexpected 14-3 record. Letting him leave in free agency placed a little more pressure on McCarthy to justify the team's faith in him.

Daniel Jones, who fell into Minnesota's lap during the season (and who was inching toward supplanting Darnold in the postseason), saw a better opportunity to play in Indy, where the Colts were ready to admit their mistake with the fourth overall pick in 2023. More pressure on McCarthy.

And Aaron Rodgers's interest in the Vikings went unrequited. Even more pressure on McCarthy.

In the abstract, did it make sense to find out what they have in McCarthy? Yes. But the Vikings whiffed on the broader strategic question as to the potential impact that passing on Darnold, Jones, and Rodgers would have on the pressure cooker occupied by McCarthy.

Regardless of whether McCarthy can ever develop as a high-end NFL quarterback, the rare (and potentially unprecedented) pressure he was surely feeling may have short-circuited the process, irreparably.

That's not an excuse for McCarthy. It's an indictment of the Vikings, flowing directly from the perception that emerged in March among those who were dealing with the Vikings that it wasn't clear who was making the decision as to whether the quarterback for 2025 would be Darnold, Jones, Rodgers, or McCarthy.

Put simply, there seems to be a current void of effective short- and long-term strategic thinking within the Vikings organization. Kevin O'Connell is a great head coach, able to sculpt every lump of quarterback clay into an effective performer. (Well, except one.) An NFL team needs much more than that to truly thrive.

When it comes to creating a clear path for a young quarterback to check the various boxes, the Vikings instead threw an array of obstacles in McCarthy's path, in the form of one-at-a-time decisions that added to the expectations and the pressure. Especially after missing all of his rookie season due to a knee injury suffered in his lone preseason game last August.

Who decided it would be a good idea to turn up the heat on McCarthy, one lost veteran opportunity at a time? Did anyone within the organization consider the various factors and complications with an eye toward assessing whether it would result in, to no surprise, McCarthy thinking too much and/or trying too hard?

That brings us back to the question of who, if anyone, is even making those big decisions as it relates to the structure of the roster and the various factors and dynamics that can, and apparently did, torpedo a team that was tantalizingly close to plucking the No. 1 seed a season ago. It's almost enough to make Vikings fans long for the days of the ill-fated Triangle of Authority.

Currently, maybe it's a dodecahedron. Whatever the number of cooks, the absence of an Executive Chef is making the Vikings seem like a bunch of dodos as it relates to the handling of J.J. McCarthy.

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