NFL Playoff Projection: Chiefs at Cowboys could have playoff implications
A Thanksgiving game between a team that just needed an overtime win to get to 6-5 and another that is 5-5-1 after a two-game winning streak shouldn't impact playoff discussion too much.
We all know better.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys are among the NFL's marquee teams, and a Thanksgiving matchup between the two as they struggle to get into the bracket should be one of the highest-rated regular season games in many years.
Though the teams have similar records, their playoff odds are much different. The 6-5 Chiefs have a 65.7% chance to make the playoffs, via DVOA, while the 5-5-1 Cowboys are down at 7.3%. But a win by the Cowboys would give everyone in Dallas hope that the team, with new addition defensive tackle Quinnen Williams transforming the defense, is ready to get hot and make a run to the postseason.
The Chiefs' playoff outlook is tenuous too. A loss knocks them back to .500. The Chiefs need to go 4-2 the rest of the way to get to 10 wins, which is probably the minimum needed in the AFC wild card race, and a loss when they're favored at Dallas would be a big blow.
The urgency on both sides will make the second Thanksgiving game feel like a playoff game. And it will get television ratings like a playoff game, too.
Here are the other Week 13 games that will have the biggest impact on the playoff picture:
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
We're getting four good games on Thursday and Friday and the rest of the NFL week is ... yeah. Enjoy the start to the week, as the Packers look to sweep the Lions. The 7-4 Lions are in reasonable shape in the NFC North race but that changes if they lose at home to start Thanksgiving. They might be in danger of missing the playoffs altogether with a loss. The Packers have been up and down but are 7-3-1 and a win over the Lions would be massive for their chances of winning the division.
Detroit has always treated its Thanksgiving game like a playoff game, and this season the matchup itself will live up to that energy.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
The Bengals probably aren't going to make a run to the playoff field. They're just 1.6% to make the playoffs via DVOA. But don't tell Cincinnati that. Joe Burrow is back and that will provide some hope of running the table and stealing the AFC North. Realistically they're just spoilers, which makes them interesting too. The Ravens have won five in a row and are back in a first-place tie in the AFC North, but they have not been dominant lately. They've just caught a soft spot in the schedule. The Steelers will be rooting hard for the Bengals in this Thanksgiving prime-time matchup.
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles
Give the NFL credit for scheduling on Thursday and Friday. There are four interesting games. The Bears are 8-3, in first place of the NFC North, but do we think they can keep this up? Their resume is short on quality wins, but that can change on Black Friday. The Eagles are going to win the NFC East barring a historic collapse, but they're still in the mix for the No. 1 seed. But they can't afford to lose a game like Friday at home.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
The best game on Sunday and Monday, in terms of playoff implications for both teams, might be this one. The Colts have regressed a bit after a 7-1 start, and now get a Texans team coming off an impressive win over the Bills last Thursday night. That means Houston has some extra rest as well. The door is still open for the Texans to steal the division. They're 3-1 in divisional games with two games left against Indianapolis, including a Week 18 showdown. If the Texans win at Indianapolis on Sunday, they're very much in the mix for a division title.