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We're starting to find a bit of a consistent groove of late, after another week with six of the top 10 correct. Some of those picks, like the Browns, Ravens, and Patriots were not entirely bold calls. However, I was one of the few people to rank the Saints inside the top 10, and they finished with 11 points as they 7th-ranked defense on the week.

The other big win was that I kept the Rams and Texans in tier two despite them having matchups that put them outside the top 10 consensus rankings. The Rams finished as the #1 defense, and the Texans were 6th. It's just another reminder that really good defenses should just stay in your lineup because, at worst, they provide a safe floor. As of now, I think those two defenses, plus the Browns, Patriots, and Broncos, are probably the six defenses that I'm never going to bench.

As a final reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.

Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.

2025 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)

WEEK 12: 6-4

SEASON-LONG: 61-59

Getting Defensive: Week 12 fantasy plays led by Seahawks, Lions; top streaming defenses

The Seahawks and Lions lead the clear D/ST starts, but the Packers and Falcons headline the streamers to watch. Here’s how to set your fantasy defense in Week 12.

• Gary Davenport,

BOD Formula and Philosophy

If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.

To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula (EPA allowed is in a small decimal point, hence the heavy multiplication):

((PRESSURE RATE x 1.5) + (TURNOVER RATE x 2)

MINUS

(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.75) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE))

I then add that total to the team's fantasy points per game over the last eight weeks, since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points. I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to account for injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much on "gut feel" or concerns about wind, etc.

With that out of the way, onto the rankings.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC'S PICK 3(DST) VIDEOOVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

Bryce Young went from a career-high in passing to throwing two interceptions and only 169 passing yards against a poor 49ers defense. As a team, the Panthers have only allowed 6.8 fantasy points per game to fantasy defenses over the last month, but this Rams defense is really good. Over the last two months, they rank 1st in the NFL in opponents' scoring rate, 3rd in turnover rate, 3rd in EPA per play allowed, 8th in conversion rate allowed, and 9th in the NFL in pressure rate, while averaging 10.1 fantasy points per game. I think double digits are possible here.

It doesn't get much better than the Texans when it comes to real-life and fantasy defense. Over the last two months, they rank 1st in the league in EPA per play allowed, 2nd in opponents' scoring rate, 2nd in turnover rate, 2nd in conversion rate allowed, and 4th in the NFL in pressure rate, while averaging 11.4 fantasy points per game. They just showed that they can deliver against any offense by not just beating the Bills but thoroughly dominating a good Buffalo offensive line and sacking Josh Allen eight times, the most he has ever been sacked in his career. Now, we also saw the Falcons put up a huge day against the Bills and then fall on their face because there is certainly something about playing Josh Allen on national TV that makes defenders turn the volume up to 11. That being said, I don't think there are many weaknesses in this Texans defense, and the Colts offense has been showing plenty of cracks lately, allowing 9.7 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month, thanks to eight turnovers and 12 sacks allowed.

The Broncos are another solid defense that just needs to be trusted most weeks. Over the last two months, they rank 1st in the league in conversion rate allowed, 3rd in opponents' scoring rate, 4th in EPA per play allowed, and 8th in pressure rate, while averaging 8.3 fantasy points per game. The Commanders could get Jayden Daniels and/or Terry McLaurin back this week, so we need to keep an eye on the injury report, but this is shaping up like a decent spot for the Broncos and could be a great spot if one or both of those guys miss.

The Seahawks let us down this Sunday against the Titans, but that's no reason to abandon them completely. Over the last two months, they still average 7.6 fantasy points per game and rank 1st in the NFL in pressure rate, 4th in opponents' scoring rate, and 7th in conversion rate allowed. The pressure rate number is the big one here because they are facing a Vikings team that is 30th in the NFL in sack rate allowed. Part of that is due to J.J. McCarthy and his poor pocket recognition, but McCarthy is unlikely to play this week. Still, that means a Vikings offense that has allowed 9.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month is going to play rookie undrafted free agent Max Brosmer at quarterback on the road. The Vikings also lost two offensive linemen against the Packers, with left tackle Christian Darrisaw (foot) and left guard Donovan Jackson (ankle) both leaving the game and not returning. If you can't feel confident about the Seahawks in this one then I'm not sure you ever can.

The Bucs defense has struggled since the bye, producing just four fantasy points in three games; however, those games did come against the Bills, Rams, and Patriots, so I think we need to keep that context in mind. Over the last two months, they have averaged 7.0 fantasy points per game and rank 4th in the NFL in turnover rate. Meanwhile, the Cardinals allow 11.3 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. Even if we assume Marvin Harrison Jr. comes back, and this offense gets a little better, this Bucs team is probably in a good enough spot to push for a top-five day.

The Chargers are only in this tier because they are coming off a bye and getting a Raiders offense that ranks 26th in turnover rate, 29th in sack rate allowed, and 31st in scoring rate while allowing 10 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. Ashton Jeanty also suffered a late-game ankle injury that had head coach Pete Carroll saying, "There's a chance he'll be OK." Great, don't love that. As of now, I'm expecting Jeanty to play at less than 100%, but if he seems to be on track to miss this game, I might move the Chargers up to the top of this tier. I'll just be super nervous about it.

The Dolphins have been a surprisingly decent defense over the last two months, ranking 11th in pressure rate, 11th in conversion rate allowed, and 12th in opponents' scoring rate while averaging 6.0 fantasy points per game. They are now coming off the bye with the best matchup on the board against a Saints offense that has allowed 10 fantasy points per game over the last month and won't have Alvin Kamara on Sunday. A 7-9 point performance from the Dolphins DST is not out of the question here.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC'S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

The 49ers offense is not a great matchup, even though Brock Purdy looked horrible on Monday, but the Browns are a really strong defense. Over the last two months, they rank 2nd in the league in EPA per play allowed, 3rd in conversion rate allowed. 5th in opponents' scoring rate, 8th in turnover rate, and 12th in pressure rate while averaging 11.3 fantasy points per game. That kind of performance makes me feel confident in playing them as a safe floor defense almost every week.

We love the Patriots as a defense. They're averaging 7.6 fantasy points per game over the last month while ranking 5th in the NFL in pressure rate, 5th in EPA per play allowed, 7th in opponents' scoring rate, and 10th in turnover rate. However, the Giants have not been a great matchup. They were allowing just 5.0 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses with Jaxson Dart under center, and they just held the Lions to 3.0 points last week, thanks to a huge game from Jameis Winston. I think the Patriots are good enough to play, and there's always a chance that either Dart or Winston, whoever starts, simply falls flat, but it's not as much of a certainty as you'd think.

The Jaguars may be the most frustrating team in the NFL. Some weeks, they look like a legit playoff contender, and other weeks, they look like a mess. That has translated to their defensive performance as well. While some of it is matchup-dependent, they really are just maddeningly inconsistent as a defense. They started the season on fire for the first five weeks. Then they put up 1 TOTAL FANTASY POINT in their next three games against the Seahawks, Rams, and Raiders (RAIDERS!?) They bounced back with strong efforts against the Texans, Chargers, and Cardinals, and now only have three games all season where they have scored fewer than seven fantasy points. The Titans are not as giving to opposing fantasy defenses as they have been, averaging just 7.8 fantasy points allowed over the last month, and are coming off a game where they allowed the Seahawks DST to score just four. Still, the Jags rank 7th in the NFL in pressure rate over the last two months and have that relatively stable floor, so maybe they're good for 7-9 fantasy points here.

I'm not sure the Saints' defense gets enough respect. Over the last two months, they rank 6th in the NFL in turnover rate and 7th in EPA per play allowed, while averaging 7.4 fantasy points per game. They now get a Dolphins offense that is giving up 7.3 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. Yes, the Dolphins are coming off a bye, but I still think the Saints are a solid streaming option.

The Eagles' defense has really stepped it up of late, ranking 5th in the NFL in pressure rate, 8th in opponents' scoring rate, 9th in EPA per play allowed, and 12th in conversion rate allowed over the last two months. That has only led to a fairly average 6.4 fantasy points per game, but the underlying performance has been there. The Bears are not a great matchup, allowing just 4.3 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month, but we did see on Sunday that Caleb Williams is still capable of some back-breaking decisions, which means the Eagles are always in play for a defensive TD.

That was a really tough loss for the Colts, who seemed to be on their way to a huge win over the Chiefs before their offense just failed to show up in the fourth quarter. That being said, their defense also gave up well over 200 yards in the fourth quarter alone, and that's, well, not so good. Over the last two months, the Colts rank 9th in the NFL in turnover rate and average 7.6 fantasy points per game. They aren't bad, but they're not great, and the rank just 18th in pressure rate over that time, so they may not be the best bet to take advantage of the Texans' poor offensive line. I can see them being playable here, hence the ranking, but I don't see a high ceiling.

Listen, my model says not to rank the 49ers here. Yes, the Browns are a great matchup and don't possess much talent on offense, but this 49ers defense has been really bad. Even if you count their performance last night against the Panthers, over the last two months, they rank 17th in the NFL in turnover rate, 24th in opponents' scoring rate, 29th in EPA per play allowed, and dead last in pressure rate. Sure, you can bank on Shedeur Sanders making poor decisions and allowing the 49ers to put up a strong performance, but the 49ers average just 3.9 fantasy points per game over the last month, so it's a big risk.

This tier features plenty of good defenses in bad matchups

The Ravens have been coming on as a defense. Over the last two months, they rank 5th in the league in conversion rate allowed, 7th in turnover rate, 8th in EPA per play allowed, and 9th in opponents' scoring rate. That has led to a solid 9.4 fantasy points per game. The issue here is that, not only did Kyle Hamilton suffer an injury on Sunday, but the Bengals look set to get Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase back on Thursday. That just makes it really hard for me to want to target a defense playing against them on a short week.

The Chiefs rank 6th in the NFL in opponents' scoring rate, 9th in conversion rate allowed, and 10th in EPA per play allowed over the last two months, but the Cowboys offense is starting to click, and is a really tough matchup. Meanwhile, the Chiefs saw right guard Trey Smith suffer an ankle injury that may cause him to miss this game, which gives a Cowboys defense, which is 3rd in the NFL in pressure rate over the last two months, a puncher's chance at a good fantasy day.

The Packers and Lions are two solid defenses that are really hurt by having to play each other. Over the last two months, the Packers rank 4th in the league in conversion rate allowed and 6th in EPA per play allowed. Meanwhile, the Lions rank 6th in the league in conversion rate allowed and 11th in EPA per play allowed. Now, Green Bay is only averaging 7.1 fantasy points per game over the last two months, and the Lions are averaging just 5.4 fantasy points, so these are not units putting up consistently big numbers, and that's why it's harder for me to trust them.

Each week, Tier 5 will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.

As of right now, I expect Baker Mayfield to play. He's been diagnosed with a low-grade sprain in his non-throwing shoulder. I also expect Bucky Irving to return this week, so I'm not interested in the Cardinals DST.

Colts head coach Shane Steichen calls the team's offensive plays and his work in that area came under scrutiny after the team's 23-20 overtime loss to the Chiefs.

The Colts had a 20-9 lead heading into the fourth quarter, but they failed to pick up a first down on any of their final four possessions and that left the door open for a Kansas City comeback win. During his Monday press conference, Steichen was asked several questions about his thought process on those drives.

After a Jonathan Taylor run on the team's first offensive play of the fourth quarter, Steichen called passes on the next eight plays. Quarterback Daniel Jones completed two of those throws for 12 yards and the Colts only used 3:14 of clock over the course of the possessions. Steichen said the final drive of regulation was one where he could have done a "better job for sure."

“You always go back and self-evaluate those situations," Steichen said. "I really thought that last drive in regulation when we went pass, pass, pass, I could have called some runs there. Absolutely could have eaten up some time there, but, you know, in hindsight, it just didn’t work out, and I look at myself first and foremost in those situations to get better for our guys moving forward.”

The Colts took the ball to open overtime and picked up nine yards on their first two plays, but Taylor was dropped for a loss on third down and the Chiefs drove for the game-winning field goal after a punt. It's the kind of loss that necessitates a close examination of what went wrong, especially since the team's margin for error is slim with games against the Texans and Jaguars on the docket in the next two weeks.