MVP

Sam Darnold, QB, Seahawks. With apologies to Jonathan Taylor, we know how this story goes. MVP doesn’t stand for Most Valuable Player anymore. It stands for Most Valuable Quarterback on a 12-win team with a nice storyline. That gives us three frontrunners: Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye and Darnold.

Stafford is on the kind of run that could see him clinch the award by the end of the year. But right now, Darnold is the pick.

Some wondered why the Seahawks would voluntarily step off the sturdy, predictable foundation that was Geno Smith and on to the rollercoaster of Darnold. Was Darnold’s breakout in Minnesota for real? Why ditch Geno rather than beefing up his supporting cast? It felt like an unnecessary gamble. You didn’t need to squint to find the takes that, after moving on from Smith, DK Metcalf and their offensive coordinator, the Seahawks had made plenty of high-profile moves but hadn’t fixed their underlying flaws. And yet, 10 weeks in, John Schneider looks like the rare executive who was able to outthink the room.

Adding Darnold has transformed the Seahawks from a feisty team into one of the two best in the league. Darnold has been sensational – not good, not serviceable, but the best player at the league’s most valuable position. He leads the league in QBR and big-time throw rate (9.0%). No one has ripped as many high-level throws down the field under pressure. Stafford and Maye have been excellent at driving the ball down the field, but they’ve also had the luxury of open targets more often than Darnold. Darnold has faced a higher pressure rate on deep targets and a higher percentage of tight-window throws overall.

It’s the aggression that stands out. Darnold hasn’t met a coverage he isn’t keen to shred. At this stage of his career, he’s seen everything defenses will throw his way and has all the answers. He’s roasted the blitz at a league-leading rate and has an almost perfect passer rating when kept clean in the pocket.

At 7-2, the Seahawks have the championship formula. Their defense is humming. They can score on long drives or with chunk plays. And their quarterback has become an elevator rather than a passenger. He has stepped into a new spot and transformed his career for the second season in a row. The two upcoming duels with Stafford will shape the MVP race. But for now, Darnold has the edge.

Offensive Player of the Year

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts. This is how the voters cleanse their conscience: they hand the “runner-up MVP” trophy to the non-quarterback they overlooked. If Saquon Barkley did not win the biggest prize last season, Taylor is unlikely to sniff it this go around. His campaign will be the usual OPOY story: dazzling production, rushing at a historic pace and sealing his team a top seed for the playoffs.

It’s hard to divvy up credit for the Colts’ offense between Shane Steichen, the offensive line, Daniel Jones and all the team’s playmakers. But Taylor’s performance in Berlin last week proved that Indy’s renaissance runs through him – literally. He’s on track for 26 rushing touchdowns and within striking distance of LaDainian Tomlinson’s of 28, set in the 2006 season. He’s the engine of the Colts’ attack, the rare running back who alters the geometry of the defense. And once the ball is in his hands, he’s doing as much damage after contact as he is before it. Without Steichen, the line and the threat of the pass, Taylor’s numbers may not be as gaudy. But his after-contact numbers prove that he is the player that binds together Steichen’s vision.

Defensive Player of the Year

Myles Garrett, Edge, Cleveland Browns. Let’s not overthink this one. The pool of candidates this year is deep, but Garrett still lives in a rarefied air all his own. Somehow, he’s putting together the most dominant season of his career. He already has 11 sacks and 24 (!) run stops, while drawing more attention from opposing offenses than any other edge-defender in football.

Whole gameplans are built to mitigate Garrett’s presence, from double and triple teams to how opponents devise their running and passing strategies. None of it has mattered. And the ripple effect of his presence has helped put Cleveland’s defense fourth in the league in EPA/play, despite having a dysfunctional offense. Sure, the Browns stink. But their record shouldn’t diminish what Garrett is doing. If anything, it underlines it.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Why would a smart, productive receiver at Ohio State not be a success in the NFL? That’s Egbuka in Tampa Bay. What the Bucs weren’t banking on was Egbuka’s big-play potential. He was supposed to slot into the offense as a Professional Receiver, someone happy to do the dirty work to keep an offense churning. Instead, they’ve hit on a super-duper star, who can threaten a defense at all three levels. Egbuka is smooth, sudden and a splash play waiting to happen, averaging 16.9 yards per reception this season. He’s also become the go-to target for Baker Mayfield on third-downs, effectively shedding his “rookie” title midway through his first season.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Carson Schwesinger, LB, Cleveland Browns. Abdul Carter will be the favorite for this award, because edge-rushers always are. Whichever rookie leads his class in sacks or interceptions typically walks away with the hardware, regardless of their down-to-down impact.

But this year should be different. You may have noticed, but linebackers are back, people! As the league trends back towards the run game, defenses are planting heavier bodies on the field. After a barren spell of draft classes at the position, this year’s crop has been a home run. Philly’s Jihaad Campbell is more of a playmaker than Schwesinger and probably has a higher career ceiling. But Cleveland’s rookie has been the cleanest of the duo and has been a linchpin of an outstanding unit from week one. Schwesinger is a springy linebacker who can make plays behind the line of scrimmage or in coverage, something rookies at his position often struggle with.

The general trend is that it takes three years for linebackers to settle. During a nearly half-decade dry spell across the league, it’s been Fred Warner and then everyone else. Last season, Zack Baun appeared from nowhere to jump to Warner’s level, switching from the edge to a traditional linebacker role. But Campbell and Schwesinger have walked into the league from day one as if they belong. With his 25 run stops and play-to-play consistency, Schwesinger takes it.

Coach of the Year

Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots. Often, the coach of the year award is a mea culpa. We’re sorry our preseason predictions about your team were wrong. But it’s different with Vrabel. Tennessee collapsed in his absence; New England rose in his image. That’s not a coincidence.

The Patriots haven’t stumbled into an 9-2 record and a division lead. There hasn’t been a miracle quarterback boom or fluky turnover luck. What they have is Vrabel’s great gift: structure.

Vrabel joined a hollowed-out franchise, restored order and has turned the Patriots into something formidable. This year’s Patriots are “DTF”, at least according to Tony Romo. They are tough, disciplined, well-drilled and creative on both sides of the ball. If not for a bizarre five-turnover game against the Steelers, they would have started 10-1.

To think, six months ago, they were staring at a multi-year rebuild. Before Thursday’s game with the Jets, the Patriots were one of only two teams (along with the Rams) that were in the top 10 in both offensive EPA/play (eighth) and defensive EPA/play (eighth). You can point to the soft schedule, but it’s not as if the Patriots entered the season as sure-fire contenders themselves. And they have two of the most impressive wins this season, beating Buffalo and Tampa Bay on the road.

Vrabel’s fingerprints are all over the turnaround. Almost all of his offseason bets have paid off instantly. He remade the defensive front with the offseason additions of Milton Williams, Khyiris Tonga, K’Lavon Chaisson, Harold Landry and Robert Spillane, relying on a group of players he worked with in Tennessee. Only Williams is a blue-chip star, yet the Patriots have the third-best pass defense in the NFL. And they’ve done so despite missing their defensive coordinator, Terrell Williams, who was diagnosed with prostate cancer in September. Vrabel has assumed a more prominent role with the defense. But he also entrusted 37-year-old Zak Kuhr, who also came from Tennessee with Vrabel, with play-calling responsibilities in Williams’ absence.

Vrabel also made the call to bring back Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator, despite his obvious desire to move on from New England’s Belichick days. It’s been a masterstroke; McDaniels has helped unlock Maye’s potential and constructed a top-10 unit without high-wattage talent.

There are precious few examples of franchises having such a sharp about-face in one offseason with such an influx of new players and coaches. And all of those decisions trace back to Vrabel.