There’s a chasm forming in the AFC West between the good teams and bad.
On one side are the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos, who for different reasons are climbing the charts. On the other are the Las Vegas Raiders, who are lousy.
The Chargers, who have lost three of four, are hovering over the divide, hoping to get some key players back from injuries quickly and return to their form of earlier this season. They’re like a sports car that’s really difficult to beat when finely tuned, but more often in the shop.
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The Chargers play host to Minnesota on Thursday night, and despite their various injuries on the offensive line and recent inability to adequately protect Justin Herbert, should be able to take advantage of the Vikings’ issues at quarterback. Carson Wentz will follow a couple of good throws with something wildly off-target.
This is a much different division than in the first month of the season, when the Chargers opened with victories over the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos in consecutive weeks.
Kansas City’s offense and Denver’s defense are two of the best units in the NFL, and each is on a record-setting pace.
The Raiders, coming off a 31-0 loss at Kansas City, are free-falling toward irrelevance even before the midway point of the season. Pete Carroll probably doesn’t regret his decision to return to coaching — he’s wired for this and he craves competition at every turn — but he has to be questioning that massive contract for quarterback Geno Smith ($66.5 million guaranteed over two years) and the overall potential of the roster.
Regardless, it would be miraculous if the two-win Raiders were to rise from the ruins and make something of this season.
But the Chiefs and Broncos? They’re worth watching.
Kansas City is putting up better numbers than it did during multiple Super Bowl runs. The Chiefs are scoring on 52.3% of their drives, compared with 46% (2022), 39% (2023) and 43% (2024). So far, this season is second only to the first full season of Patrick Mahomes (52.9%), when he skyrocketed to stardom.
All this comes after a shaky first few weeks when Kansas City’s collection of receivers was banged up and watching in street clothes.
The decision-making of Mahomes has accelerated. He’s making quick reads, decisive throws and trusting his offensive line, even though the Chiefs have had some injuries there. He has just two interceptions in seven games, and his team has yet to lose a fumble.
Kansas City’s receivers have stabilized, with Rashee Rice emerging as a clear No. 1, and Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy proving versatile second options. Travis Kelce has lost weight and looks rejuvenated, breaking tackles again.
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Last season, the Chiefs were grinding out victories. They had 11 one-score wins, and a 12th in the playoffs. Now, they’re pulling away from teams.
The Broncos, meanwhile, are winning some of those close games they might have lost last year. The past three weeks they won by four, two and one point.
It’s not their offense. That unit is statistically similar to last year and not as dynamic. Second-year quarterback Bo Nix is running less and seeing a lot of drives stall. Recently, the Broncos went 16 consecutive possessions without a touchdown. They seem to move the ball pretty well in up-tempo situations, but coach Sean Payton doesn’t like to lean into that with any regularity.
No, it’s Denver’s defense that’s carrying this team. The Broncos have 34 sacks, putting them on pace to shatter the NFL’s single-season record of 72 set by the 1984 Chicago Bears. Keeping up that pace will be quite a challenge, but Denver’s getting a ferocious rush coupled with smothering coverage, and cornerback Patrick Surtain II is playing the way he did last season when he was the league’s defensive player of the year.
The Broncos are 4-2 in one-score games (compared with 1-6 last season), and in the past three weeks closed out tight finishes against Philadelphia and the New York Jets and Giants.
This feels a bit like the 2016 Broncos, the year after Peyton Manning retired, when the defense held up its end of the bargain but the offense was lagging. Eventually, that season fell apart for Denver. The defense couldn’t do it all.
So the challenge for these Broncos is to get their offense up to speed, which could mean more up-tempo play and relying more on the mobility of Nix, along with cleaning up the penalties, which have been a problem.
The Broncos and Chiefs meet in Denver in Week 11, and if they both continue on this trajectory, that will be a spectacular showdown.
As for the Chargers, they’re in that limbo between good and bad. The next few weeks will be telling.
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
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