The first of two Week 2 Monday Night Football games pits two teams who haven’t played more than the obligatory “once every four years” that the NFL schedule mandates. That is until this week, where these divisional winners match up two years after a Week 9 game in 2023 that might have amounted to CJ Stroud’s coming-out party.

Throwing for 470 yards and the game-winning touchdown in the dying second of a 39-37 thriller pushed Stroud forward as the Texans’ quarterback of the future, while the Buccaneers were still in the process of buying into Baker Mayfield being theirs.

While Stroud and Mayfield will be the headliners for the opener of our double-feature, there’s another unit that features a significant, potential game-swinging mismatch.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-2.5, 42.5)

Tampa Bay played one of the all-time “could go either way” games with the division-rival Falcons in Week 1, leaving Atlanta with a crucial win. It sets them up to carry on as the favorite to win the NFC South and buys time for star left tackle Tristan Wirfs to return in October. If the Bucs can win the games they’re favored in, they’ll have a good chance to return to 10 wins and the playoffs. Strangely, last week’s win actually makes this game less valuable to Tampa.

Mayfield’s three passing touchdowns and just one sack allowed masked some issues in a passing game that only created 137 yards before Emeka Egbuka’s eventual game-winning 31-yard touchdown. In Wirfs' absence, Tampa’s moved its center to left tackle, and while that held up just well enough in Atlanta, Houston’s going to provide two big issues: a helmet-echoing prime-time atmosphere in their opener, and one of the best defensive fronts in the league.

Pro Football Focus ranked the Falcons’ defensive line 30th coming into the season, while the Texans came out of Week 1 with the second-best rating. Will Anderson posted a 40% pass-rush win rate against the Rams, and Danielle Hunter wasn’t far behind at 30%. Meanwhile, the Texans’ defense allowed 2.9 yards per rush, only losing in L.A. because the Rams converted first downs on over 50% of third and fourth downs.

Offensively, the Texans weren’t great on the road, but Nico Collins should be more of a factor, and the supporting pieces — Nick Chubb and Houston’s other receivers — should be more comfortable.

Going against a weaker offensive line, at home, the Texans should be able to get off the field more frequently on defense to help set up Stroud, who also has a better matchup against a defensive play-caller he had tremendous success against as a rookie.

Pick: Texans -2.5

Player props

Bucs WR Mike Evans Under 68.5 receiving yards (-115)

Evans is in the “Catch-22” situation of having the reputation of a Hall of Fame-caliber player, who also gets the attention of the opponent’s best corner.

In 2024, Evans had less than 70 yards in nine of 14 games, needing at least nine targets and as many as 14 in order to have a big statistical game.

With an offensive line still in flux, and the probability of a heavy dose of Texans CB Derek Stingley Jr., Evans having a big game is less likely than the -110 odds of a standard player prop bet.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving Over 17.5 receiving yards (-115)

It took a while for Mayfield to look his tailback’s way in the passing game, but when he finally did, Irving made one of the plays of Week 1 to score a 9-yard touchdown.

Irving’s other three receptions went for -1 yards, so his final tally of 8 yards is a little misleading. Unless, you think he’ll be kept from gaining yards on the checkdowns and screens that Mayfield should be frequently using to take some of the starch out of the Texans’ vaunted pass rush.

Texans RB Nick Chubb Under 50.5 rushing yards (-110)

Consider this less of a fade of Chubb, per se, and more a bet on the Texans to be able to throw the ball with more ease than last week, but without paying for the premium on a quarterback yardage over.

After an entire offseason to build back after injuries that cost him most of the last two seasons, Chubb still doesn’t have much in the way of explosiveness, maxing out at 13 yards for his longest carry last week.

With Vita Vea still clogging the middle of the Tampa defense, neither Bijan Robinson nor Tyler Allgeier were able to do much damage on the ground.

Unless the Texans lead so comfortably that Chubb is able to get a high-volume of fourth-quarter, clock-killing carries, he may be more of a complement offensively than the focus.

Anytime touchdowns

Bucs WR Sterling Shepard (+500 or better)

Atlanta's defense was able to put A.J. Terrell on Evans in Week 1, which forced the Buccaneers to test out what they had in WR Emeka Egbuka. The rookie out of Ohio State passed the early quiz, and now his touchdown odds (+185) have plummeted to just shy of where Evans’ are now (+150). Stingley Jr. should travel to match up with Evans, while Kamari Lassiter and the rest of the Texans’ secondary should be fully aware of Egbuka’s presence.

Shepard played 64% of the offensive snaps last week, and could be the threat that falls through the cracks in the red zone, after getting six targets from Mayfield in Week 1. He’s worth the first of two half-unit semi-long shot plays to score.

Texans WR Nico Collins (+135 or better)

It was a quiet Week 1 for Collins with just three catches, as the Rams clearly planned to make other Texans beat them.

Collins scored in half of the games he played in 2024, after scoring in half of the games he played in 2023.

I’ll save you the time crunching the numbers: if Collins scores in half the games he plays in, his fair odds are closer to even-money (+100).

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Throw in that he’s caught a touchdown in 13 of the 15 Texans’ home games he’s played in the last two seasons, it seems like odds of +135 — that imply a touchdown probability of just 42.6% — are a little short of the actual likelihood he scores on Monday.

Texans WR Xavier Hutchinson (+600 or better)

Whether or not the Bucs sell out to cover Collins near the end zone, Stroud’s other options should play better this week, including third-year receiver Xavier Hutchinson.

Stuck behind options like Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs, Robert Woods, and John Metchie on the depth chart last year, Hutchinson has yet to score a receiving touchdown in his career — which is why his odds are this long. However, Houston was comfortable enough to deal Metchie to the Eagles, and Hutchinson played the second-most of the receiving group in Week 1, hauling in two passes — one for 23 yards.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.